Friday, August 31, 2007

Market Comments Submitted by Nick at Ambitions as a Stock Trader

Submitted by My Ambitions as a Trader and Investor

New Buys: BW


Reasons behind trade: BW seems to be coming off of a double bottom formation. It has shown consistant support at 35 where it had begun its positive reversal. The stock has recently climbed above its 200 day MA and has shown support above this level.

BW


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Thursday, August 30, 2007

Market Comments Submitted by Nick at Ambitions as a Stock Trader

Submitted by My Ambitions as a Trader and Investor

Trying to Sit Tight...

Sitting tight and not trading is difficult to do. Yet, in our current market enviornment, it is probably the safest and smartest actions that an active trader can perform. I've been tempted to add some of my current holdings and I've been tempted to buy several interesting stocks. Still, I have to constantly remind myself of the markets volatile and trendless action. Of course, I will still be on the look out for any new possibilities for both long and short trades....

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Market Comments Submitted by Nick at Ambitions as a Stock Trader

Submitted by My Ambitions as a Trader and Investor

Laterally Trending Market...

The current market conditions that we have been experiencing are quite possibly the most difficult to trade in. Laterally (or sideways) trending markets do not provide rewarding opportunities for both longs or shorts. Instead, they are filled with traps that can easily drain ones account. Trying to predict what the market will do next is not a game that I would like to play. It is a losing game at best. But still, by examining the chart a few days ago, I posted that if the DJIA can break above or close onto or above 13,200 that it would head higher and that if it closed below that point, it would have headed lower. Well it did close above the 13,200 point and lo and behold, it jumped up quite considerably. In order for the DJIA to break out above its 50 day MA, the 13,200 point needs to act as support (much like a spring board). Again, violating the 13,200 point can send the market further down again to retest the lows. Unless we trade sideways the whole time, next week should be rather interesting as far as the future direction of the market is concerned.

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Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Market Comments

Submitted by My Ambitions as a Trader and Investor

Lazy Monday

There is only one word that can accurately describe todays market action. And that single word is.....BORING! Maybe it was the lack of volume or interesting trading action or something else. Regardless, todays tepid action is a wonderful reminder that the traders and institutional investors are still in summer vacation mode. I couldn't find that many interesting trades. Previous candidates are still doing quite fine such as TOD, VII, SHEN, SLI, etc. I've built up my watchlist a bit over the weekend but I didn't have much time to go through it. After today, it will be much easier to weed out the bad apples on my list. Despite the markets slightly negative bias, the low volume makes this more of a pullback, which is to be expected following last weeks bullish action. For now, enjoy the last few weeks of vacation, go to the beach and just have fun because in a few weeks the warm, lazy days of summer will fade away.


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Monday, August 27, 2007

Market Comments Submitted by Nick at Ambitions as a Stock Trader

Submitted by My Ambitions as a Trader and Investor

Laterally Trending Market...

The current market conditions that we have been experiencing are quite possibly the most difficult to trade in. Laterally (or sideways) trending markets do not provide rewarding opportunities for both longs or shorts. Instead, they are filled with traps that can easily drain ones account. Trying to predict what the market will do next is not a game that I would like to play. It is a losing game at best. But still, by examining the chart a few days ago, I posted that if the DJIA can break above or close onto or above 13,200 that it would head higher and that if it closed below that point, it would have headed lower. Well it did close above the 13,200 point and lo and behold, it jumped up quite considerably. In order for the DJIA to break out above its 50 day MA, the 13,200 point needs to act as support (much like a spring board). Again, violating the 13,200 point can send the market further down again to retest the lows. Unless we trade sideways the whole time, next week should be rather interesting as far as the future direction of the market is concerned.

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Friday, August 17, 2007

Market Comments Submitted by Nick at Ambitions as a Stock Trader

Submitted by My Ambitions as a Trader and Investor

Oversold Bounce...so What's Next?



Today's oversold bounce should have been obvious. Fund managers and institutional investors can't keep their hands off of a good deal and the street was definitely littered with them after the past two weeks volatile downward spiral. On top of all that, the markets were shocked back to life via the Federal Reserves billion dollar cash injections. Today could have ended a whole lot uglier if the Fed hadn't stepped in. Unfortunately it is still far too early to tell if the markets primary trend will be saved. I tried to not be too greedy so I covered a bit of my futures contracts for some impressive gains. I still have a portion of them open just in case. My stock shorts jumped up quite considerably from today's late buying spree. I searched for some new longs but I haven't found anything worth it. For now, I'll just hang onto my current holdings as they are working out just fine.





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Knobias ClipReport (8-17-2007)

Submitted from Knobias ClipReport

The overall market looked weak again as more signs of trouble in the housing, mortgage, and credit industries surfaced. Countrywide Financial noted that they were tapping into an $11.5 billion line of credit to shore up its business. Global markets also took hits as worldwide concerns of credit have spread. The Commerce Department reported housing starts fell by 6.1% to a seasonally adjusted 1.381 million annual rate, a ten year low. The lowered permits show that mortgage financing is becoming more difficult to procure for consumers and that the population is seeing a decrease in existing home prices leaving those with the financing believing existing homes were bargains versus new homes.

Remarkably, the markets were down almost 350 points before rallying the last hour and ending the day in the green. For the technical analysts, a doji dragon fly pattern appeared on the Dow’s 200 day moving average. The pattern, which is a fairly reliable bullish signal, could signify a bottom, but with the massive amount of short term negativity, it remains to be seen.

With the huge amount of volatility and negativity still in the market, safer bets could be on the minds of traders and what’s safer than a name trading at cash?

Well, with the recent decline in the dollar, interest rates declining, inflation still being a concern, cash may not even be safe, but some funds have to have equity positions, and other investors buying for the long haul could care less what’s safe now as opposed to 30 years down the road. Needless to say, there’s still going to be buying and the buying will most likely be less speculative in nature.

Though biopharmaceuticals are and have been fairly speculative, bio’s trading at cash are much less risky, especially with pipelines chock full of prospects. While the bio buzz was only a few months ago, profit taking has left many of the names at extremely low levels relative to their liquid asset values.

Names such as Renovis, Telik, Pharmacyclics, Idenix, Gene Logic, Hollis-Eden, and Threshold are down from April and trading near record lows and cash/liquid asset levels.

Renovis Inc. (RNVS) has a market cap of $89 million with $91.7 million in current assets. The Company is researching neurological and inflammatory disease with 5 preclinical candidates. Telik Inc. (TELK) has a market cap of $140 million with $114 million in current assets. The Company has a cancer drug in Phase III and one in Phase II of testing along with a host of others in preclinical research. Pharcaclyclics (PCYC) has a market cap of $53.5 million and current assets of $40 million. The Company has a Phase II candidate for non-small cell lung cancer, non Hodgkin’s lymphoma, and glioblastoma. Idenix Pharmaceuticals (IDIX) has a market cap of $156 million and $135 million in current assets. The Company also has $44.5 million in non current restricted cash and marketable securities. Their pipeline includes a hepatitis B candidate in Phase II/III, hepatitis C candidates in preclinical and Phase I stages as well as an HIV candidate in Phase I testing, not to mention the Company’s hepatitis B drug, Tyzeka, which is already on the market. Hollis Eden trades at $43 million in market cap but has $52.17 million in cash. By the end of the year, the Company expects to have two Phase I/II clinical trials underway with HE3286 in the treatment of metabolic disorders and inflammatory conditions which is expected to be followed in early 2008 with an IND filing for HE3235 in cancer. Threshold Pharmaceuticals (THLD) has a market cap of $26.5 million and total current assets of $35.7 million. In the pipeline the Company has Glufosfamide in Phase II testing for pancreatic, ovarian, small cell lung cancer and sarcoma. In Phase I is Deoxyglucose for solid tumors as well as two other candidates in the research and preclinical phases. Gene Logic (GLGC) has a market cap of $38.4 million with current assets of $44 million. The Company isn’t a true biopharm but does involve itself in the industry. The Company has recently announced the reduction of expenses in its genomics division and is exploring the sale of its assets while focusing on the drug repositioning division which identifies and develops new and expanded uses for discontinued lines.

In any event, the speculative nature and risk involved with pharmaceuticals was very high when the names received attention due to various conferences earlier in the year. With the names trading lower to cash and liquid asset levels, the speculation and risk become extremely lower. With safe havens for money on the minds of many in the market, these names could be something to follow. Investors would be wise to watch.




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Thursday, August 16, 2007

Market Comments Submitted by Nick at Ambitions as a Stock Trader

Submitted by My Ambitions as a Trader and Investor

Trade Journal



Short Positions Working Just Fine...
Some of the short positions that I have initiated a few weeks ago are starting to show me decent gains. On the flip side, my remaining long positions are continuing to lag even more. I may have to liquidate more by the end of the week.

Short positions: MS, BSC, GS, AIG, AXA, LM, SVVS, MER, CE

Re-Short: HBC (I got stopped out with the first short position)

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Knobias ClipReport (8-16-2007)

Submitted from Knobias ClipReport


Networking sites have become extremely popular over the past few years. While younger consumers groups have begun an ever increasing thirst of knowledge of technology, software, and the internet, the popularity of these sites have blossomed causing the business world to take notice.

With News Corp’s acquisition of Myspace.com nearly two years ago, the expansion in the number of these sites increased with founders looking to hit it big. Wikipedia has over 100 different social networking sites listed encompassing the globe and ranging from subject groupings from book lovers to gothic industrial culture. Though the number of different sites that focus on the building and verifying of online social networks for communities of people who share interests and activities is much larger than the 100 listed, the entire group is easily dwarfed by the two behemoths in Myspace and facebook.

facebook, which has been in the media limelight over the past few months because of speculation regarding the company’s pursuit in becoming public, founder, Mark Zuckerberg being sued by ex-classmates claiming he stole their idea, and recently having its back end code published on the web, is the second largest social networking site.

The site also has received some flack regarding the qualifications to become a member. In the beginning, it was only open to users with an .edu email address which verified their status as college students. The site then expanded to high schools and now is open to everyone much to the delight of advertisers but to the dismay of students who liked the exclusive site.

Many responded by noting that even though Myspace was loud and allowed for individuality, its non exclusiveness was what turned many college students off and onto facebook. Since facebook has all but abandoned their original niche, other sites have decided to focus on this somewhat neglected area.

One name that is expected to enter the small cap space is CollegeTonight.com. The student exclusive network will provide information about parties, concerts, social events, and have the ability to download contact information into handsets. The site was recently named in a piece by Business Week regarding facebook’s struggles as of late.

Simex Technologies (SMXT), a shell company, announced during Tuesday’s session that it had entered into a Letter of Intent to acquire College Tonight, Inc. in a reverse merger.

The proposed merger is subject to numerous conditions precedent, and will involve a change in stockholder control of SMXT, change of management, change of corporate name, change of corporate headquarters and other significant matters. The proposed merger was expected to also involve a 1:4 reverse stock split of the current outstanding shares of SMXT with closing in 60 days or less.

Very attentive traders became aware of the announcement as shares saw an almost absurd gain on volume exceeding 6.7M. On Wednesday shares saw a pullback losing some 30% on 600K shares traded.

The speculative nature of trading in the name has many thinking that the next facebook is here and is public in the small cap space, but without any other information about the CollegeTonight site besides a 9 month nightlife tour across various college campuses to promote the site, investors would be wise to only invest money that they can afford to lose. But with some large sponsors, Subaru and CBS are noted to have signed on for the tour, the name is at least something to follow over the coming months.


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Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Knobias ClipReport (8-15-2007)

Submitted from Knobias ClipReport

Volatility was the name of the game again as reports circulated of liquidity problems surrounding Sentinel Management Group. Weak reports from Wal-Mart and Home Depot also caused concern regarding consumer health.

One of the only positives of the day was the IPO of VMware Inc. which saw the software spinoff climb more than 75% during the day. The IPO saw the gains spread to many in the technology sector.

One name in the small cap space that has received attention over the past few months was Octillion Corp. (OCTL). The Company is a technology incubator focused on the identification, acquisition, development and eventual commercialization of emerging technologies. Through relationships with universities, hospitals and government agencies, the Company attempts to identify technologies and business opportunities on the leading edge of innovation that have the potential of serving significant and unmet market needs.

With much of the buzz surrounding the alternate energy sectors, the Company recently decided to focus Octillion's financial and managerial resources on the development of leading edge solar energy technologies. Their proprietary technology that they are attempting to develop is a first of its kind transparent glass window capable of generating electricity.

In an 8-K from July, the Company noted that they created an early lab scale model of Octillion’s transparent photovoltaic ‘NanoPower Window’. Scientists successfully engineered and assembled a mechanically stable, see-through developmental prototype, which achieved optically active down-conversion and displayed good electrical properties with no electrical shorts.

Also in the filing, Octillion noted the key development of the NanoPower Windows was a proprietary spray coating of a silicon nanoparticle film, which is fluorescent and able to convert the sun’s energy into electricity. The process of producing these silicon nanoparticles is supported by 10 issued US patents, 7 pending US patents, 2 issued foreign counterpart patents and 19 pending foreign counterpart patents.

The process for spraying the silicon nanoparticles onto glass surfaces is unique to Octillion, and is among the Company’s major research achievements. Earlier this year, researchers developed a protocol for reliably depositing nanoparticles onto glass surfaces using a proprietary electro spray system able to produce nanofilms of controllable thickness. Importantly, the silicon nanoparticles retained their high efficiency of down conversion of UV light to the visible after being sprayed.

With the speculative nature that surrounds buzz sectors, investing in these types of names is very risky evident by ethanol seeing its premium valuations eroding over the past year.

But the name has one aspect to it that many others in the alternate energy do not; an investment from a leading conservationist. David Gelbaum made a mark on the hedge fund landscape years ago. His career lasted 3 decades in this highly volatile industry which saw him become a key ingredient in the first market neutral hedge fund. Gelbaum was one of the first math researchers hired by the fund to track and exploit the price discrepancies between a company's stocks and its options, warrants and convertible bonds. The fund never had a losing quarter and increased investors' money more than 13-fold over 1970 through 1989. The fund, named Princeton-Newport Partners, was dissolved in 1989 after being sidetracked by illegal activities when brokers in New Jersey were convicted of scheming tax losses. Gelbaum was never implicated in the discrepancy and went on to found Sierra Enterprises Group where he eventually retired.

Needless to say, Gelbaum is in the hedge fund hall of fame and probably the California Conservationist hall of fame. With his amassed fortune, Gelbaum became California’s greatest conservationist. According to an LA Times article in 2001, Gelbaum had donated in the neighborhood of $250 million dollars to education and conservation programs.

Now he and wife, Monica Chavez Gelbaum, are involved in a trust named, The Quercus Trust. Quercus which is the Latin term for oak tree seems to be a logical name and symbol for the investments the trust holds. Included in its holdings are other alternate energy names such as Beacon Power Corp (BCON), Emcore Corp (EMKR), Open Energy Corp. (OEGY), Worldwater & Power Corp (WWAT) and now Octillion.

On August 10th, the trust filed a Schedule 13D displaying a 6.7% stake had been acquired in Octillion Corp. The acquisition, which began in late June, has 3,444,700 shares at a cost basis of $2.45. But even with the tidy 67% profit, past acts of conservation and donation would suggest the investment was made for the long term.

In any event, speculative names that reside in buzz sectors and have limited funding, (the company only had $1.07 million in cash according to their latest 10-Q), no revenues, and speculative products cause many wise investors to tread carefully in these name, but with what would seem to be an authority on stocks and conservation efforts directly involved invested in the Company, the name could gain attention over the coming months. Investors would be wise to watch.


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Monday, August 13, 2007

Market Comments Submitted by Nick at Ambitions as a Stock Trader

Submitted by My Ambitions as a Trader and Investor

Trade Journal



Market Comments: Despite the overall market indices weakness, many of my holdings held up well. The problem with subprime is not a new one, but quite frankly, its one that I've becoming sick of hearing.

New Buys:

Add Ons: VII, CVGW

Sell Profit:

Sell Loss:

Futures: Short Dow, NASDAQ, S&P 500 (e-mini)- In retrospect, I shouldn't have covered my first short position in the first place. Oh well. With the current market action I had plenty of time to re-initiate my short position. Hopefully I'll make an actual profit instead of breaking even.

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Thursday, August 09, 2007

Market Comments by Nick at Ambitions as a Stock Trader

Submitted by My Ambitions as a Trader and Investor

...I still have many stocks doing well and others not doing so well. This is not usually a positive thing. Still, I have to work with the trend that the market gives me. I have already closed my mini futures for a slight profit/break even. I should have done that yesterday, but I didn't get a chance. For now it is not worth being short unless a definite trend emerges. So lets see which stocks fared well, which didn't and which ones ended up mixed for the day...

Stocks Doing Good: GNET (by the way, GNET makes a good buy even at the current level as the stock is still within a proper buy point), IIN, CVGW (CVGW provided a small buy point on today's dip. After today's strong action, I am convinced that CVGW is shaping up to be a powerful mover), SHMR (a good time to buy SHMR is when it trades near its 10 day MA), SPNC, SYUT


Stocks Not Doing So Well: KTEC ( I should've sold it all yesterday. I got rid of the rest of my position and I still made a profit of over 20%). BOOT (ugly reversal...if it doesn't shape up tomorrow, I'm selling), LGTY (finally got rid of this pos...I failed to follow my own rules. I should have sold this one a few days ago), SYNP

I've been looking for any new longs and think that I may have found a few. If you choose to play them, play them at your own risk. Do not put a crazy amount of money in any new position. It is far better to just keep adding to your top performing stocks and getting rid of stocks that are performing poorly. In tonight's search I have found many past stock picks and holdings. I will try to post some either later or early morning. Today was a long day and I'm getting a bit tired.....

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Tuesday, August 07, 2007

Market Comments Submitted by Nick at Ambitions as a Stock Trader

Submitted by My Ambitions as a Trader and Investor

Nice Up Day...

Today was a strong up day. Unfortunatly for me, most of my new trade picks faltered pretty badly. The bounce that I was expecting in VCO and CU never happened. Even my micro-cap plays seemed to not want to participate in todays rally. What's going on? Could this day simply be an over-inflated bounce? Judging by the large amount of stocks that haven't reacted well despite the 280+ point rush, I would be slightly cautious. We were in oversold mode and in desperate need of a bounnce. Lets see how things work out for the rest of week...

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